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My prediction. Tomorrow you may either mock, or bow. - Wemyss's Appalling Hobby:
From the Party Guilty of Committing 'Gate of Ivory, Gate of Horn'
My prediction. Tomorrow you may either mock, or bow.
Depending, obviously, upon events, as to whether you mock or bow.

McCain, with between 274 and 288 electoral votes.

And you lot?


9 comments or Leave a comment
(Deleted comment)
the_gentleman From: the_gentleman Date: November 4th, 2008 05:37 pm (UTC) (Link)
Obama, with Florida but not Ohio. Upsets in North Carolina with Obama taking the state. Electoral college... 280 votes or thereabouts.

Not that I welcome an Obama presidency from the economy's point of view, but with Palin on the ticket any support for McCain from me was lost.
ringbark From: ringbark Date: November 4th, 2008 06:51 pm (UTC) (Link)
I remain silent as to opinion, but I agree with your prediction. When it comes to it, I believe that there are many Americans who cannot bring themselves to "vote for a n". So I think there will be a surprise result. I understand this is called the Bradley effect, after Tom Bradley spectacularly lost a CA election.
wemyss From: wemyss Date: November 4th, 2008 08:37 pm (UTC) (Link)

By and large, I am not responding to prediction comments, as such.

In this instance, I shall. I believe you to be underestimating the decency of Americans; I am certain that the Bradley Effect as commonly bruited about does not exist (as is almost every serious political scientist). It is a post hoc explanation for a common oversampling error, one you will see replicated in the current election also.
ringbark From: ringbark Date: November 4th, 2008 09:13 pm (UTC) (Link)

Re: By and large, I am not responding to prediction comments, as such.

I had never heard the name of the so-called Bradley effect until a couple of days ago, but the unease with I felt that white votes might not want to vote for a black candidate without admitting it in polite company goes back a long way further than that.
I don't want you to hear me saying that I feel that way: I believe an election should be fought on issues and not on the race of the candidates.
Remember Sam Goldwyn's words, though he was talking about the American public's intelligence, not their decency.
We shall see what happens in the next few hours, of course. Why do you expect McCain to be victorious?
wemyss From: wemyss Date: November 4th, 2008 09:40 pm (UTC) (Link)


Briefly, Mr Obama even yet hasn't closed his sale. There are late breaking indicators in the polls: indicators that favour McCain. There is the usual oversampling. It might be that this is too late: as in Ford and Carter, 1976. But it may well be more like 1980 - and after. The people who are stating that the One is inevitable are the people who so presciently foresaw Jimmy Carter's reelection and the presidencies of Mondale, Dukakis, Gore, and Kerry. I suspect this election will be decided by those being reported as undecided, and will be in some ways less about asses and elephants and more about moose and pumas (and plumbers).
ringbark From: ringbark Date: November 5th, 2008 10:12 pm (UTC) (Link)

Re: 1980.

Well, I was wrong. As were you. I gladly apologise for misunderestimating the decency of Americans.
darkthirty From: darkthirty Date: November 4th, 2008 07:42 pm (UTC) (Link)
Obama with asomething around 350.
pathology_doc From: pathology_doc Date: November 4th, 2008 09:16 pm (UTC) (Link)
Crossing my fingers... McCain, by a narrow but unarguable margin.
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